ABSTRACT
(1) Background: Until December 2021, French Guiana (FG), located in South America, faced four consecutive COVID-19 epidemic waves. This study sought to analyze the mortality trend of severe COVID-19 patients admitted to the referral ICU of FG. (2) Methods: We conducted a prospective, observational, and non-interventional study in ICU at Cayenne Hospital. We included 383 patients older than 18 admitted with SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonia hospitalized from May 2020 to December 2021. The study covers three periods. Period 1 (Waves 1 and 2, original variant), period 2 (Wave 3, gamma variant), and period 3 (Wave 4, delta variant). (3) Results: The median age was 63 years (52-70). Frailty was diagnosed in 36 patients over 70 (32.4%). Only 4.8% of patients were vaccinated. The median ICU LOS was 10 days (6-19). Hospital mortality was 37.3%. It was 30.9% in period 1, 36.6% in period 2 (p=0.329 vs. period 1), and 47.1% in period 3 (0.015 vs. period 1). In multivariate analysis, independent factors associated with hospital mortality were age more than 40 years (]40-60 years] OR=5.2, 95%CI: 1.4-19.5; (]60-70 years] OR=8.5 95%CI: 2.2-32; (]70+ years] OR=17.9, 95%CI: 4.5-70.9), frailty (OR=5.6, 95%CI: 2.2-17.2), immunosuppression (OR=2.6, 95%CI: 1.05-6.7), and MV use (OR=11, 95%CI: 6.1-19.9). This model had an overall sensitivity of 72%, a specificity of 80.4%, a positive predictive value of 68.7%, and a negative predictive value of 82.8%. (4) Conclusions: The mortality of severe COVID-19 patients in French Amazonia was higher during the delta variant wave. This over-death is explained by the virulence of the responsible SARS-CoV-2 variant and the under-vaccination coverage of the studied population.
Subject(s)
Pneumonia , COVID-19ABSTRACT
While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June-July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions reduced the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid saturation of hospitals. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics across the territory, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modeling can be used to support healthcare planning and decision making in a context of high uncertainty.
ABSTRACT
Background SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies are crucial for clarifying dynamics in affected countries and determining the route that has already been achieved towards herd immunity. While Latin America has been heavily affected by the pandemic, only a few seroprevalence studies have been conducted there. Methods A cross-sectional survey was performed between 15 July 2020 and 23 July 2020 in 4 medical biology laboratories and 5 health centers of French Guiana, representing a period shortly after the epidemic peak. Samples were screened for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG directed against domain S1 of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using the anti-SARS-CoV-2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) from Euroimmun. Results The overall seroprevalence was 15.4% [9.3%-24.4%] among 480 participants, ranging from 4.0% to 25.5% across the different municipalities. The seroprevalence did not differ according to gender (p=0.19) or age (p=0.51). Among SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals, we found that 24.6% [11.5%-45.2%] reported symptoms consistent with COVID-19. Conclusions Our findings revealed high levels of infection across the territory but a low number of resulting deaths, which can be explained by the young population structure.